The formula for calculating people’s environmental footprint is simple, but widely misunderstood:
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology (I = PAT). The global rate of consumption growth, before
the pandemic, was 3% a year. Population growth is 1%. Some people assume this means that the rise in
population bears one-third of the responsibility for increased consumption. But population growth is
overwhelmingly concentrated among the world’s poorest people, who have scarcely any A or T to
multiply their P.
Yet it is widely used as a blanket explanation of environment breakdown. Panic about population
growth enables the people most responsible for the impacts of rising consumption (the affluent) to blame
those who are least responsible.