(Sonetos, 2001.)

 (Sonetos, 2001.)

Leia a crônica “Premonitório”, de Carlos Drummond de Andrade (1902-1987).

      Do fundo de Pernambuco, o pai mandou-lhe um telegrama:

“Não saia casa 3 outubro abraços”.

     O rapaz releu, sob emoção grave. Ainda bem que o velho avisara: em cima da hora, mas avisara. Olhou a data: 28 de setembro. Puxa vida, telegrama com a nota de urgente, levar cinco dias de Garanhuns a Belo Horizonte! Só mesmo com uma revolução esse telégrafo endireita. E passado às sete da manhã, veja só; o pai nem tomara o mingau com broa,precipitara-se na agência para expedir a mensagem.

    Não havia tempo a perder. Marcara encontros para o dia seguinte, e precisava cancelar tudo, sem alarde, como se deve agir em tais ocasiões. Pegou o telefone, pediu linha,mas a voz de d. Anita não respondeu. Havia tempo que morava naquele hotel e jamais deixara de ouvir o “pois não” melodioso de d. Anita, durante o dia. A voz grossa, que resmungara qualquer coisa, não era de empregado da casa; insistira:“como é?”, e a ligação foi dificultosa, havia besouros na linha.Falou rapidamente a diversas pessoas, aludiu a uma ponte que talvez resistisse ainda uns dias, teve oportunidade de escandir as sílabas de arma virumque cano1, disse que achava pouco cem mil unidades, em tal emergência, e arrematou:“Dia 4 nós conversamos.” Vestiu-se, desceu. Na portaria, um sujeito de panamá bege, chapéu de aba larga e sapato de duas cores levantou-se e seguiu-o. Tomou um carro, o outro fez o mesmo. Desceu na praça da Liberdade e pôs-se a contemplar um ponto qualquer. Tirou do bolso um caderninho e anotou qualquer coisa. Aí, já havia dois sujeitos de panamá, aba larga e sapato bicolor, confabulando a pequena distância.Foi saindo de mansinho, mas os dois lhe seguiram na cola. Estava calmo, com o telegrama do pai dobrado na carteira, placidez satisfeita na alma. O pai avisara a tempo, tudo correria bem. Ia tomar a calçada quando a baioneta em riste advertiu: “Passe de largo”; a Delegacia Fiscal estava cercada de praças, havia armas cruzadas nos antos. Nos Correios, a mesma coisa, também na Telefônica. Bondes passavam escoltados. Caminhões conduziam tropa, jipes chispavam. As manchetes dos jornais eram sombrias; pouca gente na rua. Céu escuro, abafado, chuva próxima.

    Dia 4, sem golpe nenhum, foi mandado em paz. O sonho se confirmara: realmente, não devia ter saído de casa.

(70 historinhas, 2016.)

1 arma virumque cano: “canto as armas e o varão” (palavras iniciais da
epopeia Eneida, do escritor Vergílio, referentes ao herói Eneias).

Leia a crônica “Premonitório”, de Carlos Drummond de Andrade (1902-1987).

      Do fundo de Pernambuco, o pai mandou-lhe um telegrama:

“Não saia casa 3 outubro abraços”.

     O rapaz releu, sob emoção grave. Ainda bem que o velho avisara: em cima da hora, mas avisara. Olhou a data: 28 de setembro. Puxa vida, telegrama com a nota de urgente, levar cinco dias de Garanhuns a Belo Horizonte! Só mesmo com uma revolução esse telégrafo endireita. E passado às sete da manhã, veja só; o pai nem tomara o mingau com broa,precipitara-se na agência para expedir a mensagem.

    Não havia tempo a perder. Marcara encontros para o dia seguinte, e precisava cancelar tudo, sem alarde, como se deve agir em tais ocasiões. Pegou o telefone, pediu linha,mas a voz de d. Anita não respondeu. Havia tempo que morava naquele hotel e jamais deixara de ouvir o “pois não” melodioso de d. Anita, durante o dia. A voz grossa, que resmungara qualquer coisa, não era de empregado da casa; insistira:“como é?”, e a ligação foi dificultosa, havia besouros na linha.Falou rapidamente a diversas pessoas, aludiu a uma ponte que talvez resistisse ainda uns dias, teve oportunidade de escandir as sílabas de arma virumque cano1, disse que achava pouco cem mil unidades, em tal emergência, e arrematou:“Dia 4 nós conversamos.” Vestiu-se, desceu. Na portaria, um sujeito de panamá bege, chapéu de aba larga e sapato de duas cores levantou-se e seguiu-o. Tomou um carro, o outro fez o mesmo. Desceu na praça da Liberdade e pôs-se a contemplar um ponto qualquer. Tirou do bolso um caderninho e anotou qualquer coisa. Aí, já havia dois sujeitos de panamá, aba larga e sapato bicolor, confabulando a pequena distância.Foi saindo de mansinho, mas os dois lhe seguiram na cola. Estava calmo, com o telegrama do pai dobrado na carteira, placidez satisfeita na alma. O pai avisara a tempo, tudo correria bem. Ia tomar a calçada quando a baioneta em riste advertiu: “Passe de largo”; a Delegacia Fiscal estava cercada de praças, havia armas cruzadas nos antos. Nos Correios, a mesma coisa, também na Telefônica. Bondes passavam escoltados. Caminhões conduziam tropa, jipes chispavam. As manchetes dos jornais eram sombrias; pouca gente na rua. Céu escuro, abafado, chuva próxima.

    Dia 4, sem golpe nenhum, foi mandado em paz. O sonho se confirmara: realmente, não devia ter saído de casa.

(70 historinhas, 2016.)

1 arma virumque cano: “canto as armas e o varão” (palavras iniciais da
epopeia Eneida, do escritor Vergílio, referentes ao herói Eneias).

Leia a crônica “Premonitório”, de Carlos Drummond de Andrade (1902-1987).

      Do fundo de Pernambuco, o pai mandou-lhe um telegrama:

“Não saia casa 3 outubro abraços”.

     O rapaz releu, sob emoção grave. Ainda bem que o velho avisara: em cima da hora, mas avisara. Olhou a data: 28 de setembro. Puxa vida, telegrama com a nota de urgente, levar cinco dias de Garanhuns a Belo Horizonte! Só mesmo com uma revolução esse telégrafo endireita. E passado às sete da manhã, veja só; o pai nem tomara o mingau com broa,precipitara-se na agência para expedir a mensagem.

    Não havia tempo a perder. Marcara encontros para o dia seguinte, e precisava cancelar tudo, sem alarde, como se deve agir em tais ocasiões. Pegou o telefone, pediu linha,mas a voz de d. Anita não respondeu. Havia tempo que morava naquele hotel e jamais deixara de ouvir o “pois não” melodioso de d. Anita, durante o dia. A voz grossa, que resmungara qualquer coisa, não era de empregado da casa; insistira:“como é?”, e a ligação foi dificultosa, havia besouros na linha.Falou rapidamente a diversas pessoas, aludiu a uma ponte que talvez resistisse ainda uns dias, teve oportunidade de escandir as sílabas de arma virumque cano1, disse que achava pouco cem mil unidades, em tal emergência, e arrematou:“Dia 4 nós conversamos.” Vestiu-se, desceu. Na portaria, um sujeito de panamá bege, chapéu de aba larga e sapato de duas cores levantou-se e seguiu-o. Tomou um carro, o outro fez o mesmo. Desceu na praça da Liberdade e pôs-se a contemplar um ponto qualquer. Tirou do bolso um caderninho e anotou qualquer coisa. Aí, já havia dois sujeitos de panamá, aba larga e sapato bicolor, confabulando a pequena distância.Foi saindo de mansinho, mas os dois lhe seguiram na cola. Estava calmo, com o telegrama do pai dobrado na carteira, placidez satisfeita na alma. O pai avisara a tempo, tudo correria bem. Ia tomar a calçada quando a baioneta em riste advertiu: “Passe de largo”; a Delegacia Fiscal estava cercada de praças, havia armas cruzadas nos antos. Nos Correios, a mesma coisa, também na Telefônica. Bondes passavam escoltados. Caminhões conduziam tropa, jipes chispavam. As manchetes dos jornais eram sombrias; pouca gente na rua. Céu escuro, abafado, chuva próxima.

    Dia 4, sem golpe nenhum, foi mandado em paz. O sonho se confirmara: realmente, não devia ter saído de casa.

(70 historinhas, 2016.)

1 arma virumque cano: “canto as armas e o varão” (palavras iniciais da
epopeia Eneida, do escritor Vergílio, referentes ao herói Eneias).

Leia a crônica “Premonitório”, de Carlos Drummond de Andrade (1902-1987).

      Do fundo de Pernambuco, o pai mandou-lhe um telegrama:

“Não saia casa 3 outubro abraços”.

     O rapaz releu, sob emoção grave. Ainda bem que o velho avisara: em cima da hora, mas avisara. Olhou a data: 28 de setembro. Puxa vida, telegrama com a nota de urgente, levar cinco dias de Garanhuns a Belo Horizonte! Só mesmo com uma revolução esse telégrafo endireita. E passado às sete da manhã, veja só; o pai nem tomara o mingau com broa,precipitara-se na agência para expedir a mensagem.

    Não havia tempo a perder. Marcara encontros para o dia seguinte, e precisava cancelar tudo, sem alarde, como se deve agir em tais ocasiões. Pegou o telefone, pediu linha,mas a voz de d. Anita não respondeu. Havia tempo que morava naquele hotel e jamais deixara de ouvir o “pois não” melodioso de d. Anita, durante o dia. A voz grossa, que resmungara qualquer coisa, não era de empregado da casa; insistira:“como é?”, e a ligação foi dificultosa, havia besouros na linha.Falou rapidamente a diversas pessoas, aludiu a uma ponte que talvez resistisse ainda uns dias, teve oportunidade de escandir as sílabas de arma virumque cano1, disse que achava pouco cem mil unidades, em tal emergência, e arrematou:“Dia 4 nós conversamos.” Vestiu-se, desceu. Na portaria, um sujeito de panamá bege, chapéu de aba larga e sapato de duas cores levantou-se e seguiu-o. Tomou um carro, o outro fez o mesmo. Desceu na praça da Liberdade e pôs-se a contemplar um ponto qualquer. Tirou do bolso um caderninho e anotou qualquer coisa. Aí, já havia dois sujeitos de panamá, aba larga e sapato bicolor, confabulando a pequena distância.Foi saindo de mansinho, mas os dois lhe seguiram na cola. Estava calmo, com o telegrama do pai dobrado na carteira, placidez satisfeita na alma. O pai avisara a tempo, tudo correria bem. Ia tomar a calçada quando a baioneta em riste advertiu: “Passe de largo”; a Delegacia Fiscal estava cercada de praças, havia armas cruzadas nos antos. Nos Correios, a mesma coisa, também na Telefônica. Bondes passavam escoltados. Caminhões conduziam tropa, jipes chispavam. As manchetes dos jornais eram sombrias; pouca gente na rua. Céu escuro, abafado, chuva próxima.

    Dia 4, sem golpe nenhum, foi mandado em paz. O sonho se confirmara: realmente, não devia ter saído de casa.

(70 historinhas, 2016.)

1 arma virumque cano: “canto as armas e o varão” (palavras iniciais da
epopeia Eneida, do escritor Vergílio, referentes ao herói Eneias).

Leia a crônica “Premonitório”, de Carlos Drummond de Andrade (1902-1987).

      Do fundo de Pernambuco, o pai mandou-lhe um telegrama:

“Não saia casa 3 outubro abraços”.

     O rapaz releu, sob emoção grave. Ainda bem que o velho avisara: em cima da hora, mas avisara. Olhou a data: 28 de setembro. Puxa vida, telegrama com a nota de urgente, levar cinco dias de Garanhuns a Belo Horizonte! Só mesmo com uma revolução esse telégrafo endireita. E passado às sete da manhã, veja só; o pai nem tomara o mingau com broa,precipitara-se na agência para expedir a mensagem.

    Não havia tempo a perder. Marcara encontros para o dia seguinte, e precisava cancelar tudo, sem alarde, como se deve agir em tais ocasiões. Pegou o telefone, pediu linha,mas a voz de d. Anita não respondeu. Havia tempo que morava naquele hotel e jamais deixara de ouvir o “pois não” melodioso de d. Anita, durante o dia. A voz grossa, que resmungara qualquer coisa, não era de empregado da casa; insistira:“como é?”, e a ligação foi dificultosa, havia besouros na linha.Falou rapidamente a diversas pessoas, aludiu a uma ponte que talvez resistisse ainda uns dias, teve oportunidade de escandir as sílabas de arma virumque cano1, disse que achava pouco cem mil unidades, em tal emergência, e arrematou:“Dia 4 nós conversamos.” Vestiu-se, desceu. Na portaria, um sujeito de panamá bege, chapéu de aba larga e sapato de duas cores levantou-se e seguiu-o. Tomou um carro, o outro fez o mesmo. Desceu na praça da Liberdade e pôs-se a contemplar um ponto qualquer. Tirou do bolso um caderninho e anotou qualquer coisa. Aí, já havia dois sujeitos de panamá, aba larga e sapato bicolor, confabulando a pequena distância.Foi saindo de mansinho, mas os dois lhe seguiram na cola. Estava calmo, com o telegrama do pai dobrado na carteira, placidez satisfeita na alma. O pai avisara a tempo, tudo correria bem. Ia tomar a calçada quando a baioneta em riste advertiu: “Passe de largo”; a Delegacia Fiscal estava cercada de praças, havia armas cruzadas nos antos. Nos Correios, a mesma coisa, também na Telefônica. Bondes passavam escoltados. Caminhões conduziam tropa, jipes chispavam. As manchetes dos jornais eram sombrias; pouca gente na rua. Céu escuro, abafado, chuva próxima.

    Dia 4, sem golpe nenhum, foi mandado em paz. O sonho se confirmara: realmente, não devia ter saído de casa.

(70 historinhas, 2016.)

1 arma virumque cano: “canto as armas e o varão” (palavras iniciais da
epopeia Eneida, do escritor Vergílio, referentes ao herói Eneias).

Leia a crônica “Premonitório”, de Carlos Drummond de Andrade (1902-1987).

      Do fundo de Pernambuco, o pai mandou-lhe um telegrama:

“Não saia casa 3 outubro abraços”.

     O rapaz releu, sob emoção grave. Ainda bem que o velho avisara: em cima da hora, mas avisara. Olhou a data: 28 de setembro. Puxa vida, telegrama com a nota de urgente, levar cinco dias de Garanhuns a Belo Horizonte! Só mesmo com uma revolução esse telégrafo endireita. E passado às sete da manhã, veja só; o pai nem tomara o mingau com broa,precipitara-se na agência para expedir a mensagem.

    Não havia tempo a perder. Marcara encontros para o dia seguinte, e precisava cancelar tudo, sem alarde, como se deve agir em tais ocasiões. Pegou o telefone, pediu linha,mas a voz de d. Anita não respondeu. Havia tempo que morava naquele hotel e jamais deixara de ouvir o “pois não” melodioso de d. Anita, durante o dia. A voz grossa, que resmungara qualquer coisa, não era de empregado da casa; insistira:“como é?”, e a ligação foi dificultosa, havia besouros na linha.Falou rapidamente a diversas pessoas, aludiu a uma ponte que talvez resistisse ainda uns dias, teve oportunidade de escandir as sílabas de arma virumque cano1, disse que achava pouco cem mil unidades, em tal emergência, e arrematou:“Dia 4 nós conversamos.” Vestiu-se, desceu. Na portaria, um sujeito de panamá bege, chapéu de aba larga e sapato de duas cores levantou-se e seguiu-o. Tomou um carro, o outro fez o mesmo. Desceu na praça da Liberdade e pôs-se a contemplar um ponto qualquer. Tirou do bolso um caderninho e anotou qualquer coisa. Aí, já havia dois sujeitos de panamá, aba larga e sapato bicolor, confabulando a pequena distância.Foi saindo de mansinho, mas os dois lhe seguiram na cola. Estava calmo, com o telegrama do pai dobrado na carteira, placidez satisfeita na alma. O pai avisara a tempo, tudo correria bem. Ia tomar a calçada quando a baioneta em riste advertiu: “Passe de largo”; a Delegacia Fiscal estava cercada de praças, havia armas cruzadas nos antos. Nos Correios, a mesma coisa, também na Telefônica. Bondes passavam escoltados. Caminhões conduziam tropa, jipes chispavam. As manchetes dos jornais eram sombrias; pouca gente na rua. Céu escuro, abafado, chuva próxima.

    Dia 4, sem golpe nenhum, foi mandado em paz. O sonho se confirmara: realmente, não devia ter saído de casa.

(70 historinhas, 2016.)

1 arma virumque cano: “canto as armas e o varão” (palavras iniciais da
epopeia Eneida, do escritor Vergílio, referentes ao herói Eneias).

Leia a crônica “Premonitório”, de Carlos Drummond de Andrade (1902-1987).

      Do fundo de Pernambuco, o pai mandou-lhe um telegrama:

“Não saia casa 3 outubro abraços”.

     O rapaz releu, sob emoção grave. Ainda bem que o velho avisara: em cima da hora, mas avisara. Olhou a data: 28 de setembro. Puxa vida, telegrama com a nota de urgente, levar cinco dias de Garanhuns a Belo Horizonte! Só mesmo com uma revolução esse telégrafo endireita. E passado às sete da manhã, veja só; o pai nem tomara o mingau com broa,precipitara-se na agência para expedir a mensagem.

    Não havia tempo a perder. Marcara encontros para o dia seguinte, e precisava cancelar tudo, sem alarde, como se deve agir em tais ocasiões. Pegou o telefone, pediu linha,mas a voz de d. Anita não respondeu. Havia tempo que morava naquele hotel e jamais deixara de ouvir o “pois não” melodioso de d. Anita, durante o dia. A voz grossa, que resmungara qualquer coisa, não era de empregado da casa; insistira:“como é?”, e a ligação foi dificultosa, havia besouros na linha.Falou rapidamente a diversas pessoas, aludiu a uma ponte que talvez resistisse ainda uns dias, teve oportunidade de escandir as sílabas de arma virumque cano1, disse que achava pouco cem mil unidades, em tal emergência, e arrematou:“Dia 4 nós conversamos.” Vestiu-se, desceu. Na portaria, um sujeito de panamá bege, chapéu de aba larga e sapato de duas cores levantou-se e seguiu-o. Tomou um carro, o outro fez o mesmo. Desceu na praça da Liberdade e pôs-se a contemplar um ponto qualquer. Tirou do bolso um caderninho e anotou qualquer coisa. Aí, já havia dois sujeitos de panamá, aba larga e sapato bicolor, confabulando a pequena distância.Foi saindo de mansinho, mas os dois lhe seguiram na cola. Estava calmo, com o telegrama do pai dobrado na carteira, placidez satisfeita na alma. O pai avisara a tempo, tudo correria bem. Ia tomar a calçada quando a baioneta em riste advertiu: “Passe de largo”; a Delegacia Fiscal estava cercada de praças, havia armas cruzadas nos antos. Nos Correios, a mesma coisa, também na Telefônica. Bondes passavam escoltados. Caminhões conduziam tropa, jipes chispavam. As manchetes dos jornais eram sombrias; pouca gente na rua. Céu escuro, abafado, chuva próxima.

    Dia 4, sem golpe nenhum, foi mandado em paz. O sonho se confirmara: realmente, não devia ter saído de casa.

(70 historinhas, 2016.)

1 arma virumque cano: “canto as armas e o varão” (palavras iniciais da
epopeia Eneida, do escritor Vergílio, referentes ao herói Eneias).

Leia a crônica “Premonitório”, de Carlos Drummond de Andrade (1902-1987).

      Do fundo de Pernambuco, o pai mandou-lhe um telegrama:

“Não saia casa 3 outubro abraços”.

     O rapaz releu, sob emoção grave. Ainda bem que o velho avisara: em cima da hora, mas avisara. Olhou a data: 28 de setembro. Puxa vida, telegrama com a nota de urgente, levar cinco dias de Garanhuns a Belo Horizonte! Só mesmo com uma revolução esse telégrafo endireita. E passado às sete da manhã, veja só; o pai nem tomara o mingau com broa,precipitara-se na agência para expedir a mensagem.

    Não havia tempo a perder. Marcara encontros para o dia seguinte, e precisava cancelar tudo, sem alarde, como se deve agir em tais ocasiões. Pegou o telefone, pediu linha,mas a voz de d. Anita não respondeu. Havia tempo que morava naquele hotel e jamais deixara de ouvir o “pois não” melodioso de d. Anita, durante o dia. A voz grossa, que resmungara qualquer coisa, não era de empregado da casa; insistira:“como é?”, e a ligação foi dificultosa, havia besouros na linha.Falou rapidamente a diversas pessoas, aludiu a uma ponte que talvez resistisse ainda uns dias, teve oportunidade de escandir as sílabas de arma virumque cano1, disse que achava pouco cem mil unidades, em tal emergência, e arrematou:“Dia 4 nós conversamos.” Vestiu-se, desceu. Na portaria, um sujeito de panamá bege, chapéu de aba larga e sapato de duas cores levantou-se e seguiu-o. Tomou um carro, o outro fez o mesmo. Desceu na praça da Liberdade e pôs-se a contemplar um ponto qualquer. Tirou do bolso um caderninho e anotou qualquer coisa. Aí, já havia dois sujeitos de panamá, aba larga e sapato bicolor, confabulando a pequena distância.Foi saindo de mansinho, mas os dois lhe seguiram na cola. Estava calmo, com o telegrama do pai dobrado na carteira, placidez satisfeita na alma. O pai avisara a tempo, tudo correria bem. Ia tomar a calçada quando a baioneta em riste advertiu: “Passe de largo”; a Delegacia Fiscal estava cercada de praças, havia armas cruzadas nos antos. Nos Correios, a mesma coisa, também na Telefônica. Bondes passavam escoltados. Caminhões conduziam tropa, jipes chispavam. As manchetes dos jornais eram sombrias; pouca gente na rua. Céu escuro, abafado, chuva próxima.

    Dia 4, sem golpe nenhum, foi mandado em paz. O sonho se confirmara: realmente, não devia ter saído de casa.

(70 historinhas, 2016.)

1 arma virumque cano: “canto as armas e o varão” (palavras iniciais da
epopeia Eneida, do escritor Vergílio, referentes ao herói Eneias).

                                              T E X T

      If all of the children who currently are sedentary started exercising every day, societies could save enormous amounts of money in the coming decades and have healthier citizens as a whole, according to a remarkable new study. In the United States alone, we could expect to save more than $120 billion every year in health care and associated expenses. The study is the first to use sophisticated computer simulations to arrive at a literal and sobering societal price tag for allowing our children to be sedentary.

      Inactivity is, of course, widespread among young people today. Recent research shows that in the United States and Europe, physical activity tends to peak at about age 7 for both boys and girls and tail off continually throughout adolescence. More than two-thirds of children in the United States rarely exercise at all.

      The immediate health consequences for inactive children and their families are worrisome. Childhood obesity, which is linked to lack of exercise, is common, as is the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and other health problems related to being overweight among children as young as 6.

      But the long-term financial costs of inactivity in the young, both for them and society as a whole, have never been quantified. So for the new study, which was published this week in Health Affairs, researchers with the Global Obesity Prevention Center at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and other institutions decided to create a bogglingly complex computer model of what the future could look like if we do or do not get more of our children moving.

      The researchers began by gathering as much public data as is currently available about the health, weight and physical activity patterns of all 31.7 million American children now aged 8 to 11, using large-scale databases from the Census Bureau, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other groups.

      The researchers fed this information into a computerized modeling program that created an electronic avatar for every American child today. In line with reality, two-thirds of these children were programmed to rarely exercise and many were overweight or obese.

      The scientists then had the simulated children grow up. Using estimations about how calorie intake and activity patterns affect body weight, the program changed each virtual child’s body day-by-day and year-by-year into adulthood. Most became increasingly overweight.

      As the simulated children became adults, the scientists then modeled each one’s health, based on obesity-associated risks for heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer, and also the probable financial price of dealing with those diseases (adjusted for future inflation), both in terms of direct expenses for hospitalizations, drugs and so on, and lost productivity because of someone’s being ill.

      The results were staggering. According to the computer model, the costs of today’s 8- to 11- year-olds being inactive and consequently overweight would be almost $3 trillion in medical expenses and lost productivity every year once the children reached adulthood and for decades until their deaths.

      But when the researchers tweaked children’s activity levels within their model, the numbers began to look quite different. If they presumed that, in an imaginary America, half of all children exercised vigorously for about 25 minutes three times a week, such as during active recess or sports or, more ambitiously, ran around and moved for at least an hour every day, which is the amount of youth exercise recommended by the C.D.C., their virtual lives were transformed.

      Most obviously, the incidence of childhood obesity fell by more than 4 percent, a change that resonated throughout the simulated children’s lives and society. There were about half a million fewer cases of adult-onset heart disease, diabetes, cancer and strokes in this simulation, and the society-wide costs associated with these illnesses dropped by about $32 billion every year if the children romped about for 25 minutes three times per week and by almost $37 billion if they moved for an hour every day.

      The impacts were even more substantial when the researchers assumed that 100 percent of the children who are now sedentary got regular exercise. In this scenario, the annual total costs during adulthood from obesity-associated medical expenses and lost productivity plummeted by about $62 billion when children were active three times a week and by more than $120 billion every year when all of the virtual children played and moved for at least an hour each day.

                                                     From: https://www.nytimes.com May 3, 2017

                                              T E X T

      If all of the children who currently are sedentary started exercising every day, societies could save enormous amounts of money in the coming decades and have healthier citizens as a whole, according to a remarkable new study. In the United States alone, we could expect to save more than $120 billion every year in health care and associated expenses. The study is the first to use sophisticated computer simulations to arrive at a literal and sobering societal price tag for allowing our children to be sedentary.

      Inactivity is, of course, widespread among young people today. Recent research shows that in the United States and Europe, physical activity tends to peak at about age 7 for both boys and girls and tail off continually throughout adolescence. More than two-thirds of children in the United States rarely exercise at all.

      The immediate health consequences for inactive children and their families are worrisome. Childhood obesity, which is linked to lack of exercise, is common, as is the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and other health problems related to being overweight among children as young as 6.

      But the long-term financial costs of inactivity in the young, both for them and society as a whole, have never been quantified. So for the new study, which was published this week in Health Affairs, researchers with the Global Obesity Prevention Center at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and other institutions decided to create a bogglingly complex computer model of what the future could look like if we do or do not get more of our children moving.

      The researchers began by gathering as much public data as is currently available about the health, weight and physical activity patterns of all 31.7 million American children now aged 8 to 11, using large-scale databases from the Census Bureau, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other groups.

      The researchers fed this information into a computerized modeling program that created an electronic avatar for every American child today. In line with reality, two-thirds of these children were programmed to rarely exercise and many were overweight or obese.

      The scientists then had the simulated children grow up. Using estimations about how calorie intake and activity patterns affect body weight, the program changed each virtual child’s body day-by-day and year-by-year into adulthood. Most became increasingly overweight.

      As the simulated children became adults, the scientists then modeled each one’s health, based on obesity-associated risks for heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer, and also the probable financial price of dealing with those diseases (adjusted for future inflation), both in terms of direct expenses for hospitalizations, drugs and so on, and lost productivity because of someone’s being ill.

      The results were staggering. According to the computer model, the costs of today’s 8- to 11- year-olds being inactive and consequently overweight would be almost $3 trillion in medical expenses and lost productivity every year once the children reached adulthood and for decades until their deaths.

      But when the researchers tweaked children’s activity levels within their model, the numbers began to look quite different. If they presumed that, in an imaginary America, half of all children exercised vigorously for about 25 minutes three times a week, such as during active recess or sports or, more ambitiously, ran around and moved for at least an hour every day, which is the amount of youth exercise recommended by the C.D.C., their virtual lives were transformed.

      Most obviously, the incidence of childhood obesity fell by more than 4 percent, a change that resonated throughout the simulated children’s lives and society. There were about half a million fewer cases of adult-onset heart disease, diabetes, cancer and strokes in this simulation, and the society-wide costs associated with these illnesses dropped by about $32 billion every year if the children romped about for 25 minutes three times per week and by almost $37 billion if they moved for an hour every day.

      The impacts were even more substantial when the researchers assumed that 100 percent of the children who are now sedentary got regular exercise. In this scenario, the annual total costs during adulthood from obesity-associated medical expenses and lost productivity plummeted by about $62 billion when children were active three times a week and by more than $120 billion every year when all of the virtual children played and moved for at least an hour each day.

                                                     From: https://www.nytimes.com May 3, 2017

                                              T E X T

      If all of the children who currently are sedentary started exercising every day, societies could save enormous amounts of money in the coming decades and have healthier citizens as a whole, according to a remarkable new study. In the United States alone, we could expect to save more than $120 billion every year in health care and associated expenses. The study is the first to use sophisticated computer simulations to arrive at a literal and sobering societal price tag for allowing our children to be sedentary.

      Inactivity is, of course, widespread among young people today. Recent research shows that in the United States and Europe, physical activity tends to peak at about age 7 for both boys and girls and tail off continually throughout adolescence. More than two-thirds of children in the United States rarely exercise at all.

      The immediate health consequences for inactive children and their families are worrisome. Childhood obesity, which is linked to lack of exercise, is common, as is the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and other health problems related to being overweight among children as young as 6.

      But the long-term financial costs of inactivity in the young, both for them and society as a whole, have never been quantified. So for the new study, which was published this week in Health Affairs, researchers with the Global Obesity Prevention Center at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and other institutions decided to create a bogglingly complex computer model of what the future could look like if we do or do not get more of our children moving.

      The researchers began by gathering as much public data as is currently available about the health, weight and physical activity patterns of all 31.7 million American children now aged 8 to 11, using large-scale databases from the Census Bureau, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other groups.

      The researchers fed this information into a computerized modeling program that created an electronic avatar for every American child today. In line with reality, two-thirds of these children were programmed to rarely exercise and many were overweight or obese.

      The scientists then had the simulated children grow up. Using estimations about how calorie intake and activity patterns affect body weight, the program changed each virtual child’s body day-by-day and year-by-year into adulthood. Most became increasingly overweight.

      As the simulated children became adults, the scientists then modeled each one’s health, based on obesity-associated risks for heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer, and also the probable financial price of dealing with those diseases (adjusted for future inflation), both in terms of direct expenses for hospitalizations, drugs and so on, and lost productivity because of someone’s being ill.

      The results were staggering. According to the computer model, the costs of today’s 8- to 11- year-olds being inactive and consequently overweight would be almost $3 trillion in medical expenses and lost productivity every year once the children reached adulthood and for decades until their deaths.

      But when the researchers tweaked children’s activity levels within their model, the numbers began to look quite different. If they presumed that, in an imaginary America, half of all children exercised vigorously for about 25 minutes three times a week, such as during active recess or sports or, more ambitiously, ran around and moved for at least an hour every day, which is the amount of youth exercise recommended by the C.D.C., their virtual lives were transformed.

      Most obviously, the incidence of childhood obesity fell by more than 4 percent, a change that resonated throughout the simulated children’s lives and society. There were about half a million fewer cases of adult-onset heart disease, diabetes, cancer and strokes in this simulation, and the society-wide costs associated with these illnesses dropped by about $32 billion every year if the children romped about for 25 minutes three times per week and by almost $37 billion if they moved for an hour every day.

      The impacts were even more substantial when the researchers assumed that 100 percent of the children who are now sedentary got regular exercise. In this scenario, the annual total costs during adulthood from obesity-associated medical expenses and lost productivity plummeted by about $62 billion when children were active three times a week and by more than $120 billion every year when all of the virtual children played and moved for at least an hour each day.

                                                     From: https://www.nytimes.com May 3, 2017

                                              T E X T

      If all of the children who currently are sedentary started exercising every day, societies could save enormous amounts of money in the coming decades and have healthier citizens as a whole, according to a remarkable new study. In the United States alone, we could expect to save more than $120 billion every year in health care and associated expenses. The study is the first to use sophisticated computer simulations to arrive at a literal and sobering societal price tag for allowing our children to be sedentary.

      Inactivity is, of course, widespread among young people today. Recent research shows that in the United States and Europe, physical activity tends to peak at about age 7 for both boys and girls and tail off continually throughout adolescence. More than two-thirds of children in the United States rarely exercise at all.

      The immediate health consequences for inactive children and their families are worrisome. Childhood obesity, which is linked to lack of exercise, is common, as is the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and other health problems related to being overweight among children as young as 6.

      But the long-term financial costs of inactivity in the young, both for them and society as a whole, have never been quantified. So for the new study, which was published this week in Health Affairs, researchers with the Global Obesity Prevention Center at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and other institutions decided to create a bogglingly complex computer model of what the future could look like if we do or do not get more of our children moving.

      The researchers began by gathering as much public data as is currently available about the health, weight and physical activity patterns of all 31.7 million American children now aged 8 to 11, using large-scale databases from the Census Bureau, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other groups.

      The researchers fed this information into a computerized modeling program that created an electronic avatar for every American child today. In line with reality, two-thirds of these children were programmed to rarely exercise and many were overweight or obese.

      The scientists then had the simulated children grow up. Using estimations about how calorie intake and activity patterns affect body weight, the program changed each virtual child’s body day-by-day and year-by-year into adulthood. Most became increasingly overweight.

      As the simulated children became adults, the scientists then modeled each one’s health, based on obesity-associated risks for heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer, and also the probable financial price of dealing with those diseases (adjusted for future inflation), both in terms of direct expenses for hospitalizations, drugs and so on, and lost productivity because of someone’s being ill.

      The results were staggering. According to the computer model, the costs of today’s 8- to 11- year-olds being inactive and consequently overweight would be almost $3 trillion in medical expenses and lost productivity every year once the children reached adulthood and for decades until their deaths.

      But when the researchers tweaked children’s activity levels within their model, the numbers began to look quite different. If they presumed that, in an imaginary America, half of all children exercised vigorously for about 25 minutes three times a week, such as during active recess or sports or, more ambitiously, ran around and moved for at least an hour every day, which is the amount of youth exercise recommended by the C.D.C., their virtual lives were transformed.

      Most obviously, the incidence of childhood obesity fell by more than 4 percent, a change that resonated throughout the simulated children’s lives and society. There were about half a million fewer cases of adult-onset heart disease, diabetes, cancer and strokes in this simulation, and the society-wide costs associated with these illnesses dropped by about $32 billion every year if the children romped about for 25 minutes three times per week and by almost $37 billion if they moved for an hour every day.

      The impacts were even more substantial when the researchers assumed that 100 percent of the children who are now sedentary got regular exercise. In this scenario, the annual total costs during adulthood from obesity-associated medical expenses and lost productivity plummeted by about $62 billion when children were active three times a week and by more than $120 billion every year when all of the virtual children played and moved for at least an hour each day.

                                                     From: https://www.nytimes.com May 3, 2017

                                              T E X T

      If all of the children who currently are sedentary started exercising every day, societies could save enormous amounts of money in the coming decades and have healthier citizens as a whole, according to a remarkable new study. In the United States alone, we could expect to save more than $120 billion every year in health care and associated expenses. The study is the first to use sophisticated computer simulations to arrive at a literal and sobering societal price tag for allowing our children to be sedentary.

      Inactivity is, of course, widespread among young people today. Recent research shows that in the United States and Europe, physical activity tends to peak at about age 7 for both boys and girls and tail off continually throughout adolescence. More than two-thirds of children in the United States rarely exercise at all.

      The immediate health consequences for inactive children and their families are worrisome. Childhood obesity, which is linked to lack of exercise, is common, as is the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and other health problems related to being overweight among children as young as 6.

      But the long-term financial costs of inactivity in the young, both for them and society as a whole, have never been quantified. So for the new study, which was published this week in Health Affairs, researchers with the Global Obesity Prevention Center at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and other institutions decided to create a bogglingly complex computer model of what the future could look like if we do or do not get more of our children moving.

      The researchers began by gathering as much public data as is currently available about the health, weight and physical activity patterns of all 31.7 million American children now aged 8 to 11, using large-scale databases from the Census Bureau, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other groups.

      The researchers fed this information into a computerized modeling program that created an electronic avatar for every American child today. In line with reality, two-thirds of these children were programmed to rarely exercise and many were overweight or obese.

      The scientists then had the simulated children grow up. Using estimations about how calorie intake and activity patterns affect body weight, the program changed each virtual child’s body day-by-day and year-by-year into adulthood. Most became increasingly overweight.

      As the simulated children became adults, the scientists then modeled each one’s health, based on obesity-associated risks for heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer, and also the probable financial price of dealing with those diseases (adjusted for future inflation), both in terms of direct expenses for hospitalizations, drugs and so on, and lost productivity because of someone’s being ill.

      The results were staggering. According to the computer model, the costs of today’s 8- to 11- year-olds being inactive and consequently overweight would be almost $3 trillion in medical expenses and lost productivity every year once the children reached adulthood and for decades until their deaths.

      But when the researchers tweaked children’s activity levels within their model, the numbers began to look quite different. If they presumed that, in an imaginary America, half of all children exercised vigorously for about 25 minutes three times a week, such as during active recess or sports or, more ambitiously, ran around and moved for at least an hour every day, which is the amount of youth exercise recommended by the C.D.C., their virtual lives were transformed.

      Most obviously, the incidence of childhood obesity fell by more than 4 percent, a change that resonated throughout the simulated children’s lives and society. There were about half a million fewer cases of adult-onset heart disease, diabetes, cancer and strokes in this simulation, and the society-wide costs associated with these illnesses dropped by about $32 billion every year if the children romped about for 25 minutes three times per week and by almost $37 billion if they moved for an hour every day.

      The impacts were even more substantial when the researchers assumed that 100 percent of the children who are now sedentary got regular exercise. In this scenario, the annual total costs during adulthood from obesity-associated medical expenses and lost productivity plummeted by about $62 billion when children were active three times a week and by more than $120 billion every year when all of the virtual children played and moved for at least an hour each day.

                                                     From: https://www.nytimes.com May 3, 2017

                                              T E X T

      If all of the children who currently are sedentary started exercising every day, societies could save enormous amounts of money in the coming decades and have healthier citizens as a whole, according to a remarkable new study. In the United States alone, we could expect to save more than $120 billion every year in health care and associated expenses. The study is the first to use sophisticated computer simulations to arrive at a literal and sobering societal price tag for allowing our children to be sedentary.

      Inactivity is, of course, widespread among young people today. Recent research shows that in the United States and Europe, physical activity tends to peak at about age 7 for both boys and girls and tail off continually throughout adolescence. More than two-thirds of children in the United States rarely exercise at all.

      The immediate health consequences for inactive children and their families are worrisome. Childhood obesity, which is linked to lack of exercise, is common, as is the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and other health problems related to being overweight among children as young as 6.

      But the long-term financial costs of inactivity in the young, both for them and society as a whole, have never been quantified. So for the new study, which was published this week in Health Affairs, researchers with the Global Obesity Prevention Center at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and other institutions decided to create a bogglingly complex computer model of what the future could look like if we do or do not get more of our children moving.

      The researchers began by gathering as much public data as is currently available about the health, weight and physical activity patterns of all 31.7 million American children now aged 8 to 11, using large-scale databases from the Census Bureau, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other groups.

      The researchers fed this information into a computerized modeling program that created an electronic avatar for every American child today. In line with reality, two-thirds of these children were programmed to rarely exercise and many were overweight or obese.

      The scientists then had the simulated children grow up. Using estimations about how calorie intake and activity patterns affect body weight, the program changed each virtual child’s body day-by-day and year-by-year into adulthood. Most became increasingly overweight.

      As the simulated children became adults, the scientists then modeled each one’s health, based on obesity-associated risks for heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer, and also the probable financial price of dealing with those diseases (adjusted for future inflation), both in terms of direct expenses for hospitalizations, drugs and so on, and lost productivity because of someone’s being ill.

      The results were staggering. According to the computer model, the costs of today’s 8- to 11- year-olds being inactive and consequently overweight would be almost $3 trillion in medical expenses and lost productivity every year once the children reached adulthood and for decades until their deaths.

      But when the researchers tweaked children’s activity levels within their model, the numbers began to look quite different. If they presumed that, in an imaginary America, half of all children exercised vigorously for about 25 minutes three times a week, such as during active recess or sports or, more ambitiously, ran around and moved for at least an hour every day, which is the amount of youth exercise recommended by the C.D.C., their virtual lives were transformed.

      Most obviously, the incidence of childhood obesity fell by more than 4 percent, a change that resonated throughout the simulated children’s lives and society. There were about half a million fewer cases of adult-onset heart disease, diabetes, cancer and strokes in this simulation, and the society-wide costs associated with these illnesses dropped by about $32 billion every year if the children romped about for 25 minutes three times per week and by almost $37 billion if they moved for an hour every day.

      The impacts were even more substantial when the researchers assumed that 100 percent of the children who are now sedentary got regular exercise. In this scenario, the annual total costs during adulthood from obesity-associated medical expenses and lost productivity plummeted by about $62 billion when children were active three times a week and by more than $120 billion every year when all of the virtual children played and moved for at least an hour each day.

                                                     From: https://www.nytimes.com May 3, 2017

                                              T E X T

      If all of the children who currently are sedentary started exercising every day, societies could save enormous amounts of money in the coming decades and have healthier citizens as a whole, according to a remarkable new study. In the United States alone, we could expect to save more than $120 billion every year in health care and associated expenses. The study is the first to use sophisticated computer simulations to arrive at a literal and sobering societal price tag for allowing our children to be sedentary.

      Inactivity is, of course, widespread among young people today. Recent research shows that in the United States and Europe, physical activity tends to peak at about age 7 for both boys and girls and tail off continually throughout adolescence. More than two-thirds of children in the United States rarely exercise at all.

      The immediate health consequences for inactive children and their families are worrisome. Childhood obesity, which is linked to lack of exercise, is common, as is the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and other health problems related to being overweight among children as young as 6.

      But the long-term financial costs of inactivity in the young, both for them and society as a whole, have never been quantified. So for the new study, which was published this week in Health Affairs, researchers with the Global Obesity Prevention Center at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and other institutions decided to create a bogglingly complex computer model of what the future could look like if we do or do not get more of our children moving.

      The researchers began by gathering as much public data as is currently available about the health, weight and physical activity patterns of all 31.7 million American children now aged 8 to 11, using large-scale databases from the Census Bureau, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other groups.

      The researchers fed this information into a computerized modeling program that created an electronic avatar for every American child today. In line with reality, two-thirds of these children were programmed to rarely exercise and many were overweight or obese.

      The scientists then had the simulated children grow up. Using estimations about how calorie intake and activity patterns affect body weight, the program changed each virtual child’s body day-by-day and year-by-year into adulthood. Most became increasingly overweight.

      As the simulated children became adults, the scientists then modeled each one’s health, based on obesity-associated risks for heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer, and also the probable financial price of dealing with those diseases (adjusted for future inflation), both in terms of direct expenses for hospitalizations, drugs and so on, and lost productivity because of someone’s being ill.

      The results were staggering. According to the computer model, the costs of today’s 8- to 11- year-olds being inactive and consequently overweight would be almost $3 trillion in medical expenses and lost productivity every year once the children reached adulthood and for decades until their deaths.

      But when the researchers tweaked children’s activity levels within their model, the numbers began to look quite different. If they presumed that, in an imaginary America, half of all children exercised vigorously for about 25 minutes three times a week, such as during active recess or sports or, more ambitiously, ran around and moved for at least an hour every day, which is the amount of youth exercise recommended by the C.D.C., their virtual lives were transformed.

      Most obviously, the incidence of childhood obesity fell by more than 4 percent, a change that resonated throughout the simulated children’s lives and society. There were about half a million fewer cases of adult-onset heart disease, diabetes, cancer and strokes in this simulation, and the society-wide costs associated with these illnesses dropped by about $32 billion every year if the children romped about for 25 minutes three times per week and by almost $37 billion if they moved for an hour every day.

      The impacts were even more substantial when the researchers assumed that 100 percent of the children who are now sedentary got regular exercise. In this scenario, the annual total costs during adulthood from obesity-associated medical expenses and lost productivity plummeted by about $62 billion when children were active three times a week and by more than $120 billion every year when all of the virtual children played and moved for at least an hour each day.

                                                     From: https://www.nytimes.com May 3, 2017