GLOBAL PETROLEUM

The outlook for oil supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years points to an easing of the oil market balance in 2009. Higher nonOPEC production and planned additions to OPEC capacity should more than offset expected moderate world oil demand growth, and relieve some of the tightness in the market. As a result, surplus production capacity could grow from its current level of under 2 million to over 4 million barrels per day by the end of 2009. This balance suggests some price softening, although delays or downward revisions in capacity additions in both OPEC and non-OPEC nations could alter the outlook, as could OPEC production decisions.

World oil consumption is expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels per day in both 2008 and 2009 compared with the estimated 1 million barrels per day increase recorded last year. The larger volume gains expected in 2008 and 2009 compared with 2007 mainly reflect higher consumption expected in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), particularly Europe, where weather factors constrained oil consumption last year. Projections of continued strong world economic growth will spur oil consumption gains in a number of nonOECD markets, including China, non-OECD Asia, and the Middle East countries, over the next 2 years.

OPEC members’ production decisions and the pace and timing of capacity additions in a number of countries will play a key role in determining oil market trends over the next 2 years. The Energy Information Administration projects that OPEC crude oil production will average about 32.6 million barrels per day in 2008 and 31.8 million barrels per day in 2009 compared with the 31.7 million barrels per day seen during the fourth quarter of 2007. Increased production from Angola, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq boosted OPEC’s crude output during the fourth quarter 2007.

Non-OPEC production is expected to rise by about 0.9 million barrels per day in 2008 and by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2009. This compares with a gain of 0.6 million barrels per day recorded last year. Azerbaijan, Russia, Canada, Brazil, the United States, China, Sudan, and Kazakhstan account for a large share of the gain in non-OPEC production growth in 2008 and 2009. Increases in these nations will more than offset expected declines in production in a number of countries including Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Norway.

EIA – Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 8, 2008

GLOBAL PETROLEUM

The outlook for oil supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years points to an easing of the oil market balance in 2009. Higher nonOPEC production and planned additions to OPEC capacity should more than offset expected moderate world oil demand growth, and relieve some of the tightness in the market. As a result, surplus production capacity could grow from its current level of under 2 million to over 4 million barrels per day by the end of 2009. This balance suggests some price softening, although delays or downward revisions in capacity additions in both OPEC and non-OPEC nations could alter the outlook, as could OPEC production decisions.

World oil consumption is expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels per day in both 2008 and 2009 compared with the estimated 1 million barrels per day increase recorded last year. The larger volume gains expected in 2008 and 2009 compared with 2007 mainly reflect higher consumption expected in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), particularly Europe, where weather factors constrained oil consumption last year. Projections of continued strong world economic growth will spur oil consumption gains in a number of nonOECD markets, including China, non-OECD Asia, and the Middle East countries, over the next 2 years.

OPEC members’ production decisions and the pace and timing of capacity additions in a number of countries will play a key role in determining oil market trends over the next 2 years. The Energy Information Administration projects that OPEC crude oil production will average about 32.6 million barrels per day in 2008 and 31.8 million barrels per day in 2009 compared with the 31.7 million barrels per day seen during the fourth quarter of 2007. Increased production from Angola, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq boosted OPEC’s crude output during the fourth quarter 2007.

Non-OPEC production is expected to rise by about 0.9 million barrels per day in 2008 and by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2009. This compares with a gain of 0.6 million barrels per day recorded last year. Azerbaijan, Russia, Canada, Brazil, the United States, China, Sudan, and Kazakhstan account for a large share of the gain in non-OPEC production growth in 2008 and 2009. Increases in these nations will more than offset expected declines in production in a number of countries including Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Norway.

EIA – Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 8, 2008

GLOBAL PETROLEUM

The outlook for oil supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years points to an easing of the oil market balance in 2009. Higher nonOPEC production and planned additions to OPEC capacity should more than offset expected moderate world oil demand growth, and relieve some of the tightness in the market. As a result, surplus production capacity could grow from its current level of under 2 million to over 4 million barrels per day by the end of 2009. This balance suggests some price softening, although delays or downward revisions in capacity additions in both OPEC and non-OPEC nations could alter the outlook, as could OPEC production decisions.

World oil consumption is expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels per day in both 2008 and 2009 compared with the estimated 1 million barrels per day increase recorded last year. The larger volume gains expected in 2008 and 2009 compared with 2007 mainly reflect higher consumption expected in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), particularly Europe, where weather factors constrained oil consumption last year. Projections of continued strong world economic growth will spur oil consumption gains in a number of nonOECD markets, including China, non-OECD Asia, and the Middle East countries, over the next 2 years.

OPEC members’ production decisions and the pace and timing of capacity additions in a number of countries will play a key role in determining oil market trends over the next 2 years. The Energy Information Administration projects that OPEC crude oil production will average about 32.6 million barrels per day in 2008 and 31.8 million barrels per day in 2009 compared with the 31.7 million barrels per day seen during the fourth quarter of 2007. Increased production from Angola, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq boosted OPEC’s crude output during the fourth quarter 2007.

Non-OPEC production is expected to rise by about 0.9 million barrels per day in 2008 and by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2009. This compares with a gain of 0.6 million barrels per day recorded last year. Azerbaijan, Russia, Canada, Brazil, the United States, China, Sudan, and Kazakhstan account for a large share of the gain in non-OPEC production growth in 2008 and 2009. Increases in these nations will more than offset expected declines in production in a number of countries including Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Norway.

EIA – Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 8, 2008

GLOBAL PETROLEUM

The outlook for oil supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years points to an easing of the oil market balance in 2009. Higher nonOPEC production and planned additions to OPEC capacity should more than offset expected moderate world oil demand growth, and relieve some of the tightness in the market. As a result, surplus production capacity could grow from its current level of under 2 million to over 4 million barrels per day by the end of 2009. This balance suggests some price softening, although delays or downward revisions in capacity additions in both OPEC and non-OPEC nations could alter the outlook, as could OPEC production decisions.

World oil consumption is expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels per day in both 2008 and 2009 compared with the estimated 1 million barrels per day increase recorded last year. The larger volume gains expected in 2008 and 2009 compared with 2007 mainly reflect higher consumption expected in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), particularly Europe, where weather factors constrained oil consumption last year. Projections of continued strong world economic growth will spur oil consumption gains in a number of nonOECD markets, including China, non-OECD Asia, and the Middle East countries, over the next 2 years.

OPEC members’ production decisions and the pace and timing of capacity additions in a number of countries will play a key role in determining oil market trends over the next 2 years. The Energy Information Administration projects that OPEC crude oil production will average about 32.6 million barrels per day in 2008 and 31.8 million barrels per day in 2009 compared with the 31.7 million barrels per day seen during the fourth quarter of 2007. Increased production from Angola, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq boosted OPEC’s crude output during the fourth quarter 2007.

Non-OPEC production is expected to rise by about 0.9 million barrels per day in 2008 and by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2009. This compares with a gain of 0.6 million barrels per day recorded last year. Azerbaijan, Russia, Canada, Brazil, the United States, China, Sudan, and Kazakhstan account for a large share of the gain in non-OPEC production growth in 2008 and 2009. Increases in these nations will more than offset expected declines in production in a number of countries including Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Norway.

EIA – Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 8, 2008